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Key Points
January 13, 2021
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In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we explore this week’s U.S. 50 State Risk Matrix and the apparent calm before the storm
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On Tuesday (January 12, 2021), the U.S. CDC has issued an order requiring that all air passengers arriving to the US from a foreign country be tested no more than 3 days before their flight departs and provide proof of the negative result or documentation of having recovered from COVID-19 to the airline before boarding the flight. This order will go into effect on Tuesday, January 26, 2021.
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Similar to TAG’s FAQs, NPR breaks down why it is still necessary to wear masks and avoid crowds even after getting the COVID-19 vaccine.
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The U.S.’s Operation Warp Speed has announced a pivot in its COVID-19 vaccine strategy to vaccinate all those 65 and over as quickly as possible with the vaccines that are available. Read more on CIDRAP.
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A best practice of keeping COVID-19 out of your home is to improve the ventilation (air flow) and bring in fresh air, especially if you are having visitors. This extra step, on top of staying 6 feet apart and wearing masks, can decrease your risk of getting/spreading COVID-19. Improving ventilation may include, opening windows, using air filters, and turning on fans – all actions that can clear the air and move the particles out of the space you’re in.
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You can also use a window exhaust fan or place a fan as close as possible to an open door or window, blowing outwards.
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If you want a portable air cleaner, consider using a high-efficiency particular air (HEPA) cleaner sized for the room(s) you are airing out.
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Read more tips from the CDC, including how to use ceiling fans, vent bathrooms, etc.
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Beware of black market COVID-19 vaccines. As we mentioned, COVID-19 vaccines are only being administered at approved locations.
Recommendations for Industry
A Calm Before the Storm
As is shown in this week’s matrices, there have been no dramatic changes in the last week, which may be indicating that we have “caught up” from the holiday-gathering COVID infections and are in a stability of transmission; a slowing of the spread.
But, this may be a calm before the storm as the new variants begin to have an impact. The graphic below is a Canadian data model based on the UK spread of that new variant. As modeled, there is a significant upward trend from the variant that would not have occurred without it.
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So we need to see the current calm as a temporary aspect of the virus, and continue to implement all protective behaviors (masks, distancing, handwashing, enhanced sanitation) – and continue encouraging employees to be vigilant off-duty as well.
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TAG Matrices. Based on TAG’s matrices since last week:
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Thirty-seven (37) states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50) (see Table 1, Figure 1, Figure 2). This is up from 41 last week. States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.
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The Government Stringency Index decreased to 48, up from last week’s 49. We are no longer including the Google Mobility Index in our analyses.
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Thirteen (13) states’ (Arizona, Idaho, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, and Vermont) businesses are in mixed opening stages. Five (5) states’ (Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, and Illinois) businesses are mostly closed.
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Thirty-three (33) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (Table 2). This is up from 32 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 16 states and Washington D.C. have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates adequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses. This is the same as last week. The only states with a TPR<10% and a case rate < 25/100K is Hawaii
In Case You Missed It...
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On Monday’s Recommendations for Industry, we explored what the renewed expansion of COVID-19 spread – and deaths means for you and your business.
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The FDA has issued an alert that some of the genetic COVID-19 variants may impact the results and lead to false negatives with a few COVID-19 molecular tests (e.g. Accula SARS-Cov-2 Test; TaqPath COVID-19 Combo Kit; Linea COVID-19 Assay Kit).
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Last Thursday, the U.S. hit a new record of single-day deaths from COVID-19 with over 4,085 deaths. Although the vaccine is still being distributed, it is still important to maintain social distancing, wear a mask, continue washing hands, and practice other preventive measures to keep everyone safe.
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In Los Angeles County, California, 1 in 5 COVID-19 tests are positive, indicating that the virus is still spreading at an incredible rate.
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FDA has issued a warning to beware of fraudulent tests, vaccines, and treatments. Be wary of unofficial COVID-19 vaccines and unscrupulous individuals who may be selling or administering the vaccine. Currently, vaccines are being distributed and administered through health departments, hospitals, pharmacies, and other valid medical or pharmaceutical facilities. Do not take a vaccine that is offered outside of locations listed above. If you have questions about the appropriateness of a vaccination site, reach out to your local or state health department.
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Japan has identified a new COVID-19 variant (B.1.1.248 strain with 12 mutations in the spike protein) that has similar mutations as those seen currently in the South Africa and UK variants. However, more studies must still be done to understand how this new variant may affect disease transmissibility or severity.
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In last Friday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed how businesses can determine the COVID-19 vaccination priorities and directives of the states in which they operate. Read more.
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We have continued to populate the TAG Vaccine Q&A page. Last Friday, we focused on (a) the efficacy of current tests and (b) managing potentially serious reactions of vaccines.
Keep up to date with COVID-19:
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