TAG’S COVID-19 Risk Matrix Update: January 6, 2021

​

This week’s matrices are showing upward trends in nearly every region of the US, which we would expect is attributable to a variety of factors – many stemming from the holidays at the end of December. The increase in testing is likely a “catch-up” from the reduced testing over the Christmas weekend – similar to what we saw over Thanksgiving weekend. We would also expect the increase in cases may be a reflection of the pre and post-Christmas travel – and would expect this will continue on this trajectory reflecting Christmas and New Year’s travel and gatherings. While we likely will begin to see a rise in case rates from the COVID-19 variant’s arrival in the U.S., there’s no conclusive evidence that the variant is causing the current surge in cases in the US.

 

What all this says is a continued repetition of the recommendations we’ve made for months – ensure workers are continuing to mask, maintain distance and personal hygiene, and continue enhanced sanitation. And encourage their continuation when not at work as well.

 

As shown in the matrices:

• Forty-one (41) states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50). This is up from 27 last week (Table 1, Figure, 1, Figure 2). States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia.

• The Government Stringency Index remains at 49. The average U.S. Mobility Index (Residential) has increased to 14%, up from last week’s 12%, indicating that mobility has decreased throughout the U.S.

• Twelve (12) states’ (Idaho, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, and Vermont) businesses are in mixed opening stages. Seven (7) states’ (Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Illinois) businesses are mostly closed.

• Thirty-two (32) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (Table 2). This is down from 26 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 16 states and Washington D.C. have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates adequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses. This is down from 19 states last week. The only states with a TPR<10% and a case rate < 25/100K are: Hawaii, and Vermont.