TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix Update: December 30, 2020

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We are not seeing any dramatic changes in the matrix data this week, but it is important to bear in mind that the holiday period is having an impact. Just as we saw during the Thanksgiving break, total tests being conducted has dropped somewhat this week, so the downward trends are certainly affected by that. For that reason, it is critical that everyone continue to observe all COVID-19 protective practices, minimize holiday gathering -- and patiently look forward to what will eventually, hopefully, become a more socially accessible 2021!

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As shown in the matrices:

• Twenty-Seven (27) states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50) (Table 1, Figure 1, Figure 2). This is the same as last week. States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Idaho, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Arizona, West Virginia, Iowa, Kansas, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Delaware, Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maine, New Jersey, South Carolina, Utah, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Virginia, and Texas.

• The Government Stringency Index remains at 49. The average U.S. Mobility Index (Residential) has increased to 12%, up from last week’s 9%, indicating that mobility has decreased throughout the U.S.

• Twelve (12) states’ (Idaho, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts, Maine, and Vermont) businesses are in mixed opening stages. Eight (8) states’ (Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, and Pennsylvania) businesses are mostly closed.

• Twenty-six 26 states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (Table 2). This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 19 states and Washington D.C. have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates inadequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses. The only states with a TPR<10% and a case rate < 25/100K are: Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, and Vermont.