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Key Points
December 23, 2020
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In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss this week’s matrices – and some behavioral tendencies that are having an impact.
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With some vaccine recipients who had no previous allergic reactions having reactions to the vaccine, a study published in Science magazine is postulating that the compound polyethylene glycol (PEG) in the packaging of the messenger RNA (mRNA) that forms the vaccine’s main ingredient may be putting a small number of people who were previously exposed to PEG and developed high levels of antibodies against PEG, at risk of an anaphylactic reaction to the vaccine. Thus, it is recommended that the vaccine continue to be administered in facilities equipped to handle anaphylaxis.
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To answer your questions about the vaccine, TAG has developed a new COVID-19 Vaccine FAQ webpage. We will continue to update the FAQs both in our COVID newsletter and on that webpage.
Recommendations for Industry
TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix Update: December 22, 2020
This week’s matrices are continuing to reflect the differences among states as well as the continuing spread of the virus and the need to maintain vigilance. This is particularly important as we are seeing a seesaw impact caused by some behavioral tendencies – e.g., where spread is high, it begins to decrease as people increase their protective behaviors; where spread is low, it begins to increase as people relax their behavior. This trend is likely to continue after the holiday season and into the New Year as people continue to spend more time indoors. As such, it is important that businesses stay aware of community changes and continue to enforce and remind employees of COVID protections – masks, distancing, handwashing, and sanitation.
As shown in the matrices:
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Twenty-Seven (27) states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50) (Table 1, Figure 1, Figure 2). This is down from last week’s 43 states. States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and West Virginia.
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The Government Stringency Index increased to 49. This is up from 47 last week. The average U.S. Mobility Index (Residential) has increased to 9%, up from last week’s 8%, indicating that mobility has decreased throughout the U.S.
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Thirteen (13) states’ (Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maine, North Carolina, New York, Vermont, Michigan, and Rhode Island) businesses are in mixed opening stages. Seven (7) states’ (California, Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington) businesses are mostly closed.
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Twenty-nine (29) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (Table 2). This is down from 32 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 20 states and Washington D.C. have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates inadequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses. This is up 16 states last week.
Table 1. Case Rates per 100K in United States
Figure 1. Total Tests per 100K Population and Test Positive Rates
Figure 2. Case Rates per 100K Population and Stringency
Table 2. Test Positive Rates v Case Rates
In Case You Missed It...
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In Monday’s, Recommendations for Industry, we discuss CDC’s ACIP Phase 1b definitions of frontline essential workers for COVID-19 vaccinations and Europe’s major lockdown over ‘new’ COVID-19 strain.
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The FDA has approved Moderna’s vaccine for an EUA and is currently being distributed and administered in the USTo address skepticism over the vaccine’s safety and show its safety, Vice-President Mike Pence received his COVID-19 vaccine live on TV.
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In last Monday’s Recommendations for Industry, we discussed a new COVID-19 county-level data set for predictive analyses – and address the vaccine question: What does FDA say about the safety of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for those with allergies?
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As the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine is underway, the CDC has released on “What to Expect at Your Vaccine Appointment”.
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On Sunday, the CDC updated its list of vaccine-related references. Refer to these resources on the CDC’s website.
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The CDC put out thoughts on travel related to the upcoming Holiday Travel Season:
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Travel can increase your chance of spreading and getting COVID-19. Postponing travel and staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others.
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You and your travel companions (including children) may feel well and not have any symptoms, but you can still spread COVID-19 to family, friends, and community after travel.
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Do not travel if you are sick or test positive for COVID-19. Do not travel with someone who is sick.
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Keep up to date with COVID-19:
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