TAG’s COVID-19 Risk Matrix Update December 15, 2020

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Forty-three (43) states are in the High or Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50). This is up from last week’s 38 states. States in the High and Highest-Risk Quadrants are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Wyoming (Figure 1, Table 1).

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Additionally, the U.S. Government Stringency Index remains at 47, the same as last week’s, indicating that stringent government regulations are in place. The average U.S. Mobility Index (Residential) has decreased to 8%, down from last week’s 9%, indicating that mobility has increased throughout the U.S.

 

Eleven (11) states’ (Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maine, North Carolina, New York, Vermont) businesses are in mixed opening stages. While eight (8) states’ (California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Washington) businesses are mostly closed.

 

Thirty-two (32) states have a TPR ≥10% and a case rate ≥ 25/100K people (Tables 2). This is down from 35 states last week. This indicates that testing may not be adequate to fully characterize the true severity of the outbreak in the states. On the other hand, 16 states and Washington D.C. have a TPR < 10% and a case rate≥ 25/100K people indicates inadequate testing that is likely finding most symptomatic cases of illnesses. This is up from 12 states last week.

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