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Key Points
November 30, 2020
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In today’s Recommendations for Industry, we discuss the current COVID-19 pandemic’s third wave. Will recent lessons learned bring about new quarantine or isolation scenarios?
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A systematic review and meta-analysis in The Lancet found that researchers could not detect live virus beyond day 9 of illness, even with persistently high viral loads. In fact, SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract appeared to peak in the first week of illness. This new analysis may cause the US CDC to consider shortening isolation guidelines in coming weeks.
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Today, Moderna plans to apply for an EUA through the FDA for its COVID-19 vaccine. Moderna has confirmed that its COVID-19 vaccine has 94% efficacy.
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While its vaccine has not received an EUA from FDA yet, Pfizer has begun preparing shipments of its COVID-19 vaccine from Belgium to the U.S., in preparation for distribution. This is in addition to those vaccines produced in Kalamazoo, Michigan.
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Recent CDC studies have found that , fewer than 10% of Americans had contracted COVID-19 through September. While there was a wide variance between regions and professions, another CDC study found increasing declines in antibody levels post-infection that may negatively represent the number of previously infected individuals. CIDRAP summarizes these findings here.
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A recent article provides five recommendations as guideposts to ensure that policies and practices at the federal, state, local, and tribal levels support equity, transparency, accountability, availability, and access to upcoming COVID-19 vaccines.
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In Case You Missed It:
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Last Wednesday, we discussed a few of the vaccines with promise to protect us against COVID-19 and the U.S. 50-State Risk Matrix as we enter into the holiday season.
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The CDC will likely recommend shortening the coronavirus quarantine period from 14-days to less days with a testing-out strategy (NPR). This announcement tracks with our Industry update from last Friday; read TAG’s take here from last week.
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If you are located in California, the Cal/OSHA Standards Board has proposed a COVID-19-related emergency standard that may likely go into effect soon. Some of the requirements in the criteria include a written COVID-19 prevention program; notifying potential COVID-19 close-contact exposures within one (1) business day; ensuring physical distancing measures; requiring employers to provide face coverings and ensure their wearing; new return-to-work guidelines; and new testing requirements especially for businesses with multiple outbreaks within their business. Read a summary here.
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The FDA published a comprehensive new page with answers to frequently asked questions about face masks, surgical masks, and respirators.
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The University of Massachusetts Amherst’s Reich Lab has put together a COVID-19 Forecasting Hub that allows, based on the current data, can provide a predictive model of how the future cases and COVID-19 may turn in your area. TAG has reached similar conclusions and predictive thoughts similar to what the Forecasting Hub shows.
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The “COVID-19 Symptoms Comparison Chart” is now downloadable at our COVID-19 Resources page.
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Recommendations for Industry
Is COVID-19’s Third Wave Bringing New Quarantine/Isolation Scenarios?
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On the global level, the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is beginning to show signs of flattening. For example, in the U.K., which is about to emerge from a one-month lockdown, COVID numbers are clearly decreasing.
In the U.S., we also see a bit of a flattening; however, this is may be due to a decreased number of people seeking testing during the Thanksgiving holiday. Additionally, we fully expect to see an increase in the U.S. due to Americans' continuing trend to travel for the holidays. So while we do currently need to be especially vigilant in the U.S., there is an element of encouraging news globally.
Adding to that encouragement is the potential of some strategies that may change for symptomatic isolation and close contact quarantine, as discussed in two recent articles:
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The Lancet – In a systematic review and meta-analysis of COVID studies, no studies found detectable live virus past day 9 of illness, even with persistently high viral loads. Additionally, SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract appeared to peak in the first week of illness. However, some extremely ill persons could shed the virus for up to 20 days.
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N.Y. Times – Based on the Lancet study, a NYT article asked, “Should public health officials shorten the recommended isolation time if it means more infected people will cooperate? Or should officials opt for longer periods in order to prevent transmission in virtually all cases, even if doing so takes a harsher toll on the economy?”
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Wall Street Journal – Citing “people familiar with the matter,” WSJ states, “ Public-health officials at the CDC and state health departments are collecting and analyzing data to study whether it is possible to condense the 14-day period during which children are advised to stay home after coming in contact with a person who has tested positive for Covid-19.”
While the CDC has not published an official change to its current 14-day quarantine and 10-day isolation recommendations, there have been numerous reports that shortened timelines are under consideration. There is hope that the potential recommendations may more closely match the findings and periods from other studies. This could help increase individual compliance and enable businesses to allow employees to return to work sooner.
Keep up to date with COVID-19:
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