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Key Points
October 14, 2020
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In Today’s Recommendations for Industry, we review the abbreviated version of this week’s U.S. Risk Matrix here.
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A new study finds that there is a low risk to infants of moms with COVID-19, including that “separation of affected mothers and newborns may not be warranted, and direct breastfeeding appears to be safe.”
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CDC has provided new Trick-Or-Treating & Halloween Preventive Measures & Alternative Activities (pdf) and Steps to Take for Other Halloween Activities. Recommendations include:
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Avoid direct contact with trick-or-treaters.
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Give out treats outdoors, if possible.
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Set up a station with individually bagged treats for kids to take.
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Wash hands before handling treats.
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Wear a mask.
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A recent commentary shows that the COVID-19 pandemic may cost the U.S. up to $16 trillion.
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The FDA has provided Recommendations for Health Care Providers with clear instructions to patients who self-collect nasal SARS-CoV-2testing in health care settings.
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In Case You Missed It:
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On Monday, we discussed the complexities of determining indoor “safe spaces” as businesses seek to begin holding in-person meetings. Read more here.
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A recent CDC/NIOSH-funded study on the efficacy of face masks, neck gaiters and face shields, found that “face masks and neck gaiters are preferable to face shields as source control devices for cough aerosols.” Material and number of layers also play an important role. Read the article here.
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A recent Packer article summarizes FDA Deputy Commissioner Frank Yiannas’ exploration of Lessons learned from COVID-19. Yiannas, who spoke at the United Fresh Produce Association Washington Conference in September said, “We passed the test” in that “federal rules were adjusted to allow food normally sent to foodservice establishments to be sold at retail grocery stores.” Read the full article.
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The final report for “Remdesivir for the Treatment of COVID-19” found that “remdesivir was superior to placebo in shortening the time to recovery in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection.”
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Recommendations for Industry
Risk Matrix Update: Week of October 13, 2020
Nearly All U.S. States Trending Upward
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The Acheson Group’s U.S. Risk Matrix has calculated an Outbreak Index using a series of variables that include Test Positive Rates, Effective Rates of Transmissions, and Social Distancing Values. Through this, the Risk Matrix identifies states in various quadrants from Lower Risk to Highest-Risk.
As of October 13, 2020, 22 states are in the Highest-Risk Quadrant (Outbreak Index > 50). This is up from 17 last week. States in the Highest-Risk Quadrant are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
This past week, the average U.S. social index value increased from 27 (last week) to 29 (this week), indicating a decrease in mobility throughout the U.S.
As shown in Table 1, TAG has calculated that 13 states have a TPR greater than 10% indicating they have inadequate testing and/or increasing case counts. These states are:
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Wyoming: 24%
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Idaho and South Dakota: 23%
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Wisconsin: 20%
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Iowa: 19%
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Kansas: 17%
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Nevada: 16%
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Indiana: 15%
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Alabama, Utah, and Montana: 14%
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Nebraska: 13%
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Florida: 12%
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Table 1
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We also have displayed a table the past 4 weeks of case rates/100,000 persons per state, showing how outbreaks may be expanding and/or contracting in different states (Table 2). Case rate information is useful for identifying trends over a 2- to 4-week period. This information allows for relative risk comparisons to be made among regions and plants. This analysis calculates a 7-day rolling average of the number of cases per 100,000 people in the regions. A case rate >25 would indicate that an outbreak is uncontrolled and strict measures be undertaken to ensure safety of site and/or people (as highlighted in red with red text on the graph).
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Table 2
Table 3, as calculated by TAG, shows states where the TPR is greater than 25/100K indicating inadequate testing and an inability to capture the severity of the outbreak in their states. States where the TPR is less than 10%, but the case rate is greater than 15/100K, indicates adequate testing and significant outbreaks.
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Table 3
Outbreak Updates
As of October 14, 2020 (1:39 ET), there are over >38,304,172 cases (>1,088,704 deaths) worldwide.
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Due to the increasing number of cases in the United States, TAG will move from reporting counts per country to focus on the United States, please see here for the data. For further information regarding worldwide numbers, please refer to John Hopkin University’s aggregate map.
Keep up to date with COVID-19:
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