Risk Matrix Update (Week of August 18, 2020)

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What’s Happening this Week?

As shown in the TAG’s weekly matrices, some states have shifted in their COVID-19 outbreak, though, overall, there have been minimal changes in the test positives rates and social indexing data assessment for states. Ten (10) states are at or above the High-Risk 10% test positive rate, and there are many between 5% and 10%.

With all that has changed, two things remain (relatively) the same: summer’s end brings with it (a) a return to schools and (b) cooling weather. Both have an impact on people’s behaviors. Even with some schools continuing online classes or initiating hybrid options, there are many schools in which students are returning to in-person classes, (even if for only a limited number of days) or playing fall sports. With even these changes, we know there will be social disruption and increased interaction, which will, more than likely, increase the spread of COVID-19.

 

What we do not know is how the cooling weather will impact the virus. For one, the cooling weather may increase inside congregating that can lead to increased spread!

 

Thus, TAG’s continuing advice for food companies is to hold the line. Do not let up on your employee protections (and daily employee screenings). Do continue to educate your workers on the risks and the need for off-work protections. Do not relax at all; continue all precautions of what has already become our “new normal.”

 

 

Looking at The Data

The average U.S. social index value is 26, this week, indicating that mobility remains high within the U.S. This is the lowest average value for social distancing since this model was created and reflects increased movement of people nationwide.

• Because of increases in COVID-19 cases in the U.S., ten (10) states (California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Kentucky, and Michigan) have reversed some of their re-opening policies, which vary by state. These states are indicated by an asterisk (*) in the matrix.

• Twelve (12) states (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Illinois, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, New Jersey, and Connecticut) are partially re-opening to varying levels. These states are indicated by a cross (†) in the matrix.

 

TAG’s own analysis of national COVID-19 data shows that seven (7) states, compared to last week’s 11 states, have a test positive rate (TPR) greater than 10%. This can indicate inadequate testing levels and/or increasing case counts:

• Nevada, Idaho: 17%

• Florida: 16%

• Texas: 13%

• Kansas, Georgia: 12%

• Iowa: 11%

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TAG continues to provide this analysis on a weekly basis to assist clients in their business planning. By tracking past and current trends, we are able to deliver predictive and in-depth analytics to help businesses determine where their states appear to be headed; where governors may be implementing travel bans/quarantines; whether the business should be reopening or may have to close back down; etc. For further clarification and specifications on the states in which your facilities are located or employees need to travel, and other impacts on your situation, give TAG a call today. We are here to help your business. 

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