Risk Matrix Update (Week of August 12, 2020)

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What’s Happening this Week?

 As shown in the data (below), there is oscillation among the states’ Test Positive Rates compared with last week, with longer-term trends becoming more differentiated. TAG’s analysis (full analysis available to TAG Risk Matrix subscribers) shows that weekly available trending data can provide predictive analysis for the future. An example of this is Hawaii. For the past few weeks, it had been in an Area of Concern but had not yet been an area of High-Risk. However, this past week, it has become a High-Risk area with increased Effective Rate of Transmission and a jump in its Test Positive Rate above 5% (both increased numbers indicating a growing outbreak).

 

We also continue to note that the environment can change more dramatically as students start back to school and outdoor conditions become less conducive for even small group gatherings in areas where cases and test positive rates have decreased. So, once again, the Recommendation we have for the industry is to “stay the course” and continue following what has already become our new normal of worker protections.

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Looking at The Data

The average U.S. social index value remains at 27 this week, indicating that mobility continues to be increased within the U.S.

• Ten (10) states (California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Louisiana, Florida, Kentucky, and Michigan) have reversed some of their re-opening policies, which vary by state. These states are indicated by an asterisk (*) in the matrix.

• Twelve (12) states (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Illinois, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Delaware, New Jersey, and Connecticut) are partially re-opening to varying levels. These states are indicated by a cross (†) in the matrix.

 

As depicted in the weekly-updated TAG exclusive COVID-19 Risk Matrix, TAG’s analysis of national COVID-19 data shows that 11 states currently have a weekly test positive rate greater than 10%.

 

• Mississippi, Texas: 20%

• Florida: 17%

• Idaho, Alabama: 16%

• Nevada: 15%

• Arkansas, Arizona: 13%

• Missouri: 12%

• Kansas, Georgia: 11%

 

TAG continues to provide this analysis on a weekly basis to assist clients in their business planning. By tracking past and current trends, we are able to deliver predictive and in-depth analytics to help businesses determine where their states appear to be headed; where governors may be implementing travel bans/quarantines; whether the business should be reopening or may have to close back down; etc. For further clarification and specifications on the states in which your facilities are located or employees need to travel, and other impacts on your situation, give TAG a call today. We are here to help your business.